Samuel Group D.C. recently hosted a luncheon panel discussion at the Albany Club in Toronto, Canada, focussed on the state of Canada-U.S. relations including the impact on trade, defense and NATO. The attendance of some 70 members and guests were treated to remarks that looked not only at the current situation, but also at what the future might bring, especially as Canada is now in a federal election cycle.
Peter Seemann, the President of the Albany Club welcomed everyone. Speakers included Anthony Gualtieri, Event Chair and Head of Legal Affairs, Samuel Group D.C.; Moderator Tasha Kheiriddin from the National Post; Goran Samuel Pesic, President and CEO of Samuel Group D.C.; USAF Colonel Shawn Barnes (ret), Senior Defense Analyst, Samuel Group D.C.; Bill Cortese, Republican Political Strategist, Washington D.C.; Jeff Reynolds, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council; and CAF Lt-Gen Michel Maisonneuve (ret), Political-Military Advisor, Samuel Group.
Looking at the trade relationship, the point was made that Canada should not be surprised at President Trump’s actions as President Biden was also a protectionist during his term. Supply management of dairy, poultry and eggs continues to be a major issue with the U.S. as are the porous nature of the U.S.-Canada border, lax Canadian immigration regulations, perceived fentanyl movement and NATO funding. President Trump began to prepare his second term in 2021 and arrived ready to implement his policies in alignment with his entire staff and nominees.
NATO may not be perfect but continues to bring benefits to all members; it has also demonstrated the ability to adapt to changing situations and will continue to do so. One oft-forgotten benefit is the entire standardization program, the envy of non-NATO members.
The U.S. seems to be retrenching with President Trump’s desire to “agitate change” and repatriate production, gain energy stability and “reshore” some $2T worth of industry. These actions have made him a global forcing agent of change. Sadly, though Canada could help in terms of energy, we are currently not able to do so. For the U.S., China is the principal adversary, and Canada’s flaccid response to the CCP’s interference in our affairs is seen as a great weakness and danger. For Canada to draw closer to China as proposed in some quarters would only exacerbate the situation.
The state of Canada’s national defense is also a major issue with President Trump. He looks to do business on the basis of his personal chemistry with his interlocutors; the best way to deal with President Trump is to provide a first offer then to negotiate.
The announcement that Canada has reached agreement with Australia to provide an OTH radar system is an example of a nation specializing in an area and developing first-class expertise. In Australia’s case, its geographic location near the South China Sea makes this capability essential. Canada has the potential to develop an indigenous capability to produce our own systems. Such development would not only foster economic growth but also reduce our dependence on offshore companies. Areas could include inter-alia, ship and submarine building, armoured vehicles, ammunition and IT systems. Naturally, energy resources and critical minerals needed could be a huge source of trade with the U.S. These only require political will in Canada.
The Canadian industrial base needs to be rebuilt in Canada and should begin with the publication of a National Security Strategy from which could flow a military strategy and industrial strategy.
Discussions concluded with a sense that Canada needs to act in a serious and confident manner but should not overreact. The U.S. will remain our ally, but the current situation has provided an opportunity to redress much of what is making Canada weaker at this time: productivity, resource development, defense improvements, industrial capabilities, the border, and our alliances. Canada must come out of its crises of leadership and complacency and emerge stronger. Its future depends on it.
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